Opinion – The world was shocked by the news of the
arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by elite United States forces on
January 3, 2026. This military operation in Caracas not only changed the
political map of Latin America but also sent shockwaves throughout the globe. A
major question now hangs in the air: In a world order that increasingly prioritizes
physical force over the rule of law, could Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te
suffer a similar fate at the hands of another major power?
The Decline of the UN Security Council and the Death of International
Law
Maduro's arrest comes at a time when global
confidence in the UN Security Council is at its lowest point. This institution,
supposedly the guardian of world peace, appears powerless.
We have seen Russia invade Ukraine without
significant UN action due to Moscow's veto power. Long before that, history
records how the United Kingdom and the United States invaded Iraq without
Security Council authorization. Now, with the US's unilateral action in
Venezuela, the precedent of international law is further eroded. If a
superpower can "kidnap" an internationally recognized head of state,
what laws are left to protect the leaders of other nations?
Can the United States Be Made to Respect International Law?
One of the core issues is the paradox of American
leadership. On the one hand, Washington is often the main defender of the
"rules-based order." However, on the other hand, the US frequently
demonstrates that it is above those laws when its national interests—such as
the war on drugs or energy security—are threatened.
For many analysts, the operation in Venezuela
demonstrates that international law now applies only to weak states. The
challenge is: Can the world force superpowers to abide by the same rules? As
long as the UN sanctions mechanism can be paralyzed by the veto,
"justice" will remain selective.
The biggest concern now shifts to the Taiwan
Strait. If Russia feels entitled to invade Ukraine on grounds of historical and
territorial security, and the US feels entitled to arrest another country's
leader on its own soil, what's stopping China from doing the same with Taiwan?
Beijing has consistently asserted that Taiwan is
part of its territory. In Beijing's eyes, Lai Ching-te is considered a
"separatist." With the weakening authority of international law:
• China could use the Venezuela precedent: If the
US can arrest Maduro on international criminal charges, China might try to use
its own domestic legal narrative to take coercive action against Taiwan's
leader.
• Erosion of Sovereignty Norms: Every time a major
power violates another's sovereignty without legal consequences, it provides a
moral "green light" for other regional powers to act similarly.
Lai Ching-te's Fate in a Ruleless World
If international law has truly been replaced by the
law of the jungle (might makes right), then Lai Ching-te and Taiwan's position
is extremely vulnerable. Taiwan faces not only China's military might, but also
the reality that the international community—through the UN—may be powerless to
do much if escalation occurs.
Maduro's arrest is a bitter reminder that a
nation's sovereignty today depends more on the strength of military alliances
than on the letter of the UN Charter. For Lai Ching-te, the challenge ahead is
not just diplomacy, but how to survive in a world where the rules of the game
can be changed overnight by the greatest powers.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's president since 2024, faces pressure from China, which considers him separatist. Beijing has conducted massive military exercises around Taiwan and warned that Lai's "two-nation theory" is a provocation. Analysis of Chinese invasion scenarios suggests high risks: a blockade or amphibious invasion is possible, but the nuclear costs and global economics make it unlikely in the near term—the PLA is targeted for readiness by 2027. Unlike Maduro, Taiwan is supported by the US through the Taiwan Relations Act, but if China acts like Russia in Ukraine, the UN Security Council would likely be paralyzed by a Chinese veto. A similar fate of capture? Unlikely, as the US would not "capture" Lai; instead, tensions could escalate without international law being enforced.
